What Makes a Good Gambling Betting Strategy?
No gambling system can guarantee success. If someone invented one, it certainly wouldn't sell, and the casinos would be very quick to ban its use.
A betting strategy (known as a betting system) is a
gambling approach to producing a profit. If you want to succeed, as with a perpetual motion machine, it is impossible for pure games of probability with set odds for the system to convert the
house edge into a player advantage.
In a game with separate, random trials, no betting strategy can mathematically change the expected long-term outcomes. However, they might boost the chances of winning in the short term at the expense of higher risk, and for some people, gambling on them is fun.
Theorem 1: If a gambler risks a finite capital over many plays in a game with a constant single-trial probability of winning, losing, and tying, then all betting strategies ultimately lead to the same value of mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount wagered.
We examine the various betting systems that have developed over the years so readers can choose the betting system that best suits them for a short-term trip to the local casino. Even mathematically or scientifically, it is impossible to beat the casinos in the long run (which is why so many of them still exist).
Betting Strategies Variations System
1）Martingale System
The grandfather of all betting strategies, the Martingale System, is a betting strategy that originated in
France. That created the most basic of these methods for a game in which the gambler wins the bet if a coin lands on heads and loses it if it lands on tails.
The gambler was instructed to double their bet after each loss for the first win to offset all prior losses and yield a profit equal to the initial bet.
Given that a gambler will eventually flip heads, the martingale betting strategy will profit the player if they have infinite wealth and there is no cap on the total amount they may wager at once.
Furthermore, no gambler has limitless resources, and unlucky gamblers who adopt the martingale strategy may go bankrupt or suffer a catastrophic loss due to the exponential growth of their bets.
The gambler's expected value remains zero even though they typically receive a modest net return, giving the impression that they are using a solid strategy. The slim chance they will sustain a severe loss balances the expected gain.
The house advantage at a casino causes the predicted value to be negative. Additionally, martingale methods can swiftly put a gambler out of business because the likelihood of a run of losses is more significant than common understanding would indicate the betting strategy.
A martingale strategy is applied to
roulette, Baccarat, and Dragon vs. Tiger, as the probability of either outcome is close to 50%.
Let's say a player has a 63-unit betting budget. On the initial wager, the player could wager one unit—the wager doubles with every setback. The gamer will always gamble 2k units by using k as the number of prior consecutive losses.
The gambler will receive 1 unit in addition to the total amount wagered up to that moment if they win any wager. The gambler resumes the system with a 1-unit stake after achieving this win.
The gambler loses 63 units after suffering losses on the first six wagers. It exhausts the bankroll, and the martingale cannot be continued.
Contrary to what many instinctively think, the chances of a run of six consecutive defeats are far higher. According to psychological research, people mistakenly believe that losing a long string of games is also very low because they know that the probability of losing six straight games is low.
The likelihood of losing 6 times in a row (i.e., experiencing a streak of 6 losses) at some point over a string of 200 hands of play is roughly 96.5 percent. In contrast, the possibility of doing so in 6 plays is only 1.56 percent by using some betting strategy.
A run of 10 consecutive losses has a 17% probability of happening during the first 200 hands of the game, even if the player is willing to wager 1,000 times their initial wager. Given that 10 consecutive losses under the martingale technique result in a loss of 1,023 times the initial wager, such a losing streak would likely bankrupt the bettor.
As the table above shows, although the individual probabilities look small and improbable, the chances of these losing streaks occurring over 200 hands of play are very significant.
The main problem with the Martingale System is that once you decide to go with the system, you are committed to losing all these units just for the gain of 1 unit.
Imagine betting ₹100 a unit and having enough bankroll for 10 losses in a row; you would be risking 10 lakh every time you play in return for winning ₹100.
Although you will probably win for a while without encountering a 10 lakh loss, how many of us can realistically endure the pain of a 10 lakh loss.
There's no stopping in the middle either; once you place your first bet, you are committed to either winning back everything or going bankrupt trying.
2）1,3,2,6 System or 1,3,2,4 System
The 1-3-2-6 system is a betting strategy that works well on odds close to a 50/50 chance - particularly in
Baccarat, Roulette, and Dragon Vs. Tiger. Some wagers approach near 50/50 odds, and here is where the 1-3-2-6 can be helpful.
For instance, the Zero in Roulette means that even Red / Black isn't exactly 50/50.
The sequence of winning bets in the 1-3-2-6 betting system is as follows:
1, 3, 2, 6.
If a wager succeeds, you go on to the following bet.
You start over if a gamble is unsuccessful.
When the sequence is finished, and all four bets are winners, you return to the beginning with a profit of 12 units!
Betting Strategy | Four Straight Victories
This betting strategy performs best in games when four wins in a row are expected, but the sole risk is losing the first or second wager. You will, at the very least, break even if you win the first two bets.
When all four bets win (1 in 16 chance), you win large with the 1-3-2-6 and make a profit of 12 bet units. The fantastic thing about the 1-3-2-6 is that even if the third bet loses, you are assured to at least break even if you win the first two bets (1 in 4).
If you lose your initial wager, you lose one unit.
You will lose two units if the second fails (you gambled four units and won two).
You gain 2 units if the third wager fails because you will have 4 units after the first two wagers.
If the third and fourth picks win, your overall profit is 12 units.
However, even if the fourth wager fails, you still make a profit.
The profit you make as you proceed through the sequence of bets is depicted in the following table. Keep in mind that we're talking about betting units here, so if you're betting in ₹100 units, your bet sequence is 100, 300, 200, or 600; if you're betting in ₹250 units, your bet sequence is 250, 750, 500, 1500.
A variation of the 1-3-2-6 system is the 1-3-2-4 system.
The 1-3-2-4 system/strategy is based on the popular
1-3-2-6 system. Still, it is designed to reduce the win/loss variance by only betting 4 units on the fourth bet, thereby preserving an overall success, although the last wager fails.
You can make a profit of six units by winning the first three bets in the 1-3-2-6 (1, 3, and 2) and then risking it all on the sixth bet.
The idea behind the 1-3-2-4 was to secure an overall profit if the first two bets win by retaining two units from the six already won.
The Payoff Table for the 1-3-2-4 System is Shown Below.
The good thing about these 2 systems is that you don't risk a significant loss and can walk away anytime you feel unlucky, unlike the Martingale System, where you are committed to risking your whole bankroll every time you make the first bet.
3) The Progressive Bankroll System
There's a story of a gambler in Singapore who managed to turn his $400 (roughly equivalent to ₹22800) capital into $12,000,000 (₹68.3 crore equivalent) gambling in Resorts World Casino. We at
Hobigames managed to find out more about this story and got the latest scoop on how he managed to do it. And by what betting strategy he used.
The gambler, let's call him Paul (not his real name), has a unique strategy of dividing his bankroll (whatever he had brought to the casino) into 4 units and betting 1 unit whenever he wants to make betting strategies.
In this instance, he brought $400 into the casino, and, using his usual strategy, he bet $100 on the Baccarat table.
He won. Now, with $500 on him, one unit will be $125 instead of $100. Reminders that if he had lost his initial bet of $100, he would have had to bet $75 (300/4=75) the next hand because he only had a $300 bankroll left. He had no idea that this was the beginning of a run of luck at the casino that would change his life.
Paul's $400 quickly became $33,000, using his basic betting strategy of increasing his bets by 25% whenever he won and decreasing them by 25% whenever he lost, mainly due to him hitting a hot streak and progressively increasing his bets during that streak. The casino even gave him a free hotel room to rest in when he ended his day with $33,000.
Paul started the 2nd day with a starting bet size of $8250 (33000/4=8250), adhering to his system of betting 1/4 of whatever he had. Paul started the day strongly, with his first 5 bets winning.
Notice that bet sizes are rounded down after dividing by 4, and there's a 5% tax for the banker.
Within 5 hands, his bankroll had risen to $97600, and Paul showed no signs of stopping. An average person might already be happy with the win and betting $24400 on the next hand is not for the faint-hearted. However, Paul was sticking to his plan, and with a system, there's no emotion involved.
You either hit your target, or you don't; for Paul, his target was nowhere near. He wanted to make at least a million, and if he lost it all now, he would only have lost $400 and some of his time.
The benefit of this technique is that there are no longer any instances where you have to consider: "Oh, I think banker next hand, but it's a low confidence bet, so I bet smaller." You either bet 1/4 of your bankroll or pass and wait for a better opportunity. There are no second-guesses, no what-ifs, no regrets.
Winning more bets than he lost, and with lady luck still, on his side, he managed to end day 2 with $280,000. Being invited to the
VIP area, where he gets a 0.8% rolling rebate, also helped him accumulate his bankroll.
The casino upgraded him to a VIP suite for him to rest that night, hoping that Paul's luck would run out and he would lose back his winnings to the casino.
His 3rd day started badly, with his first bet of the day losing $70,000. He recovered it the next 2 hands, though.
3 hours into his session, he hit a hot streak where he built his bankroll up to 1.5 million. Assuming the table limit of ($300,000) had already been hit by then, Paul asked for an increase in table limits to $500,000.
The casino manager had never seen anything like this, and he called his superiors to tell them about Paul's request for increased limits. The casino replied that the $500,000 limit was only for super high rollers and VIPs, and Paul had not reached that level yet.
Paul was already betting the max table limit, and once his bankroll had hit $2.4 million, there was no stopping him. By the end of the day, he already had $3.2million that he deposited in his casino cage account. The 0.8% rolling rebate was increased to 1.1% and finally 1.3% due to his hitting the highest available rolling tier. This rolling rebate also helped him pad his bankroll.
On day 4, he had already increased his bankroll to a maximum of $12,000,000; of this amount, $9.9,000,000 was earned through winnings, and the remaining $12,000,000 was his commission from the 1.3 percent VIP rolling rebate.
The Crash
On day 5, his luck ran out, and he experienced his first losing day, ending the day down 4 million. Sensing a change in fortune, Paul quickly paid off his mortgage of 1 million and gave $500,000 to his girlfriend. But Paul did not stop there and kept gambling. After lady luck had deserted him, by the end of the month, he had only $400,000 left.
Paul's incredible run had come to an end, and all that is left behind is a fascinating story of a gambler who capitalized on his lucky streak and made the casino executives sweat. Paul still visits the casino these days, bringing $1000 or $2000 as his bankroll every time he tries to replicate his incredible run from $400 to $12 million.
Lessons to learn from Paul's adventure
A) Do not be afraid to win on a streak.
The reason why most gamblers/punters never win big is due to one simple reason. They will keep betting bigger when losing/unlucky to recoup their loss. They will keep betting smaller when they are winning/lucky to preserve their winnings.
It is human nature; we try to recoup our losses to erase the pain of losing, and we also try to maintain our winnings and stay a winner to preserve the good feeling of winning. However, the exact opposite makes you win big and lose small. Betting bigger when you are on a hot streak and betting smaller or even stopping when facing a cold deck.
B) Always have a target when you win and a stop loss when you lose.
Paul's adventure did not end well because he did not know when to stop. He maximized his winnings in one extended lucky streak but was too greedy to stop even when he had more than ₹68 crores in winnings.
To be fair to Paul, if you had set a target of ₹1 crore, you probably would never even have had a chance to hit ₹68 crores in the first place. But all good things must end, and if you hit your winning target already, walk away and try with a small bankroll again the next time.
C) Systems help keep our emotions out of the way.
Humans are very emotional creatures and often let our emotions and feelings get the better of us. How often do you remember betting all you had left in one frustrated attempt to win it back?
How often do you regret betting too small when your luck is unstoppable that day. You take your emotions out of the equation with a system you follow and let chance do the job. No longer will you have the problem of winning less than you are supposed to and losing more than you should.
D) Bankroll Management
Paul turned $400 into $12 million because he could afford to lose the $400. How much is Paul worth for him to be able to afford to gamble with $400? The general rule of investing is that you should never risk more than 2% of your bankroll on any trade.
For gambling, I would say never risk more than 1%-2% of your net worth on a session. Can you imagine betting with your whole life savings on the line? The pressure will be so great that you will shiver with every bet you make. With that kind of pressure, it's impossible to win. Always bet within your limits and only risk what you can afford to lose.
E) Targets can be moving
Let's say you start with a ₹10000 session bankroll and set a target of ₹100,000. You wouldn't want to stop while you hit ₹100,000 and you are still feeling unstoppable. To give yourself the chance to hit ₹10 lakh or even ₹1 crore, maybe you set your stop as soon as you get your first loss. E.g., You start with ₹10000 and hit ₹100,000 through a good run. That is one of the betting strategies.
Once you cross the ₹100,000 level, you try to let it ride but bear in mind once you have a losing hand, you need to get up and walk away.
So if you lose the next hand, losing ₹25000, you will still walk away with ₹75000, a not too shabby ₹65000 profit. You can start another session with a reduced bankroll after you walk away, but the important thing is to be able to walk away.
Final words of advice
Mathematically, no betting system can alter long-term expected results in a game with a negative expectation.
In the near term, we could merely increase our chances when we experience a good streak and be content with a strict aim. Our odds of posting a huge win or outcome are far more likely than our fundamental human nature to be emotional and irrational.
What are you waiting for? Learn betting strategy today!
Download the Hobigames App now!
.png "Dragon vs Tiger Tricks: Master The Top 5 Winning Strategies")
.png "Dragon vs Tiger Tricks: Master The Top 5 Winning Strategies")
.png "Dragon vs Tiger Tricks: Master The Top 5 Winning Strategies")
